Preface
Many in the West – mostly in private discussions – are debating and analyzing Vladimir Putin’s speech at the Valdai International Discussion Club. The topic was “Fair Multipolarity: How to Ensure Security and Development for All.”
The Russian President’s speech primarily focused on the future and the principles of the world order that Russia will strive for. The President also discussed the threats to civilization. Key words that can be mentioned include “image of the future,” “future,” and “civilization.” And there were many other important aspects, many of which haven’t even been mentioned.
Regarding the future structure of the world, an interesting situation arises in which we are moving towards a multipolar world. Russia asserts that this is a desirable model in which different civilizations can coexist.
There are many paths of development: simultaneously cooperating with each other, not in conflict. On the other hand, it is a rejection of the global, worldwide mission of the USA, as well as Russia’s. A global mission to make the whole world happy also includes one of the mistakes that ruined the Soviet Union. In my opinion, the desire to dominate everyone, make everyone happy, and make them live the way one sees leads to a dead end and ultimately to defeat. Therefore, I also expect the Americans to face such a defeat, despite all their efforts to force everyone to live in the same way.
That’s why it’s important to see the world as a world of different civilizations, a world of civilizational associations that cooperate with each other but, preferably, do not engage in conflicts, do not encroach on each other’s spheres of influence. Of course, such a world is somewhat idealistic. There is always a bit of utopia in every vision, including the desire to make all of humanity happy.
These days, it turns out that Russia is assuming a mission, as nobody else is as actively in conflict with the West, so there is no reason to endorse this world model as the most desirable. In fact, China, India, and groups of other countries are gradually forming themselves into civilizational associations, clusters, or entities, and they are compelled to reckon with the fact of their growing power.
On a conceptual level, no one is promoting such a thing. Many say it is necessary, but it is somehow on the periphery. Only Putin announced the concept of historical foreign policy for the next historical stage. Much will depend on the ability of Western civilization to find itself in such a world. Much will depend on the ability of all others to collectively promote such a world. This is what President Putin talked about and at the same time called for the preservation of Orthodox Christianity because it represents the greatest treasure that Russia possesses. Everything else can be bought, built, or invented.
The Palestinian military action against Israel
The military action against Israel refers to various violent conflicts and attacks that have occurred over the years between different Palestinian groups and Israel. These actions include rocket attacks, suicide bombings, armed confrontations, and other forms of resistance.
It is important to note that views on these actions vary widely depending on one’s political perspective. Some see them as legitimate resistance to Israeli occupation and a struggle for Palestinian rights, while others view them as terrorism and a threat to Israel’s security.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is highly complex and deeply rooted, with many different actors and groups on both sides. The actions and reactions in this conflict have led to numerous loss of life and significant suffering. Efforts to achieve a lasting solution to the conflict are ongoing and challenging.
It is important to consult the latest developments and news sources to get an accurate picture of what is happening regarding this conflict, as the situation in the Middle East is constantly changing.
On the coincidences that are not coincidences
First, it was the birthday of you-know-who. I don’t know how many people just don’t remember that on October 6, 1973, the Yom Kippur War began between a coalition of Arab states on one side and Israel on the other. Exactly 50 years have passed. Anniversary!
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The scale of events in the Middle East is so vast that it may only be a matter of time before new major players get involved in military operations. Israel’s mobilization of 300,000 reservists is the largest in its history and suggests far-reaching plans. The destructive and most intense operation in the Gaza Strip in recent years, which has not been fully executed and completed yet, has allowed Israel and the West to place responsibility for the actions of Hamas on the second enemy, Iran. The Wall Street Journal claims that “Iran helped in planning and gave the green light for the attack last week.”
Leading Western media agree with it and believe that this story makes it much more difficult to prevent an escalation. The fact that the first military emergency supplies from the United States to Israel include combat aircraft and air-to-air missiles, and the deployment of an American aircraft carrier strike group led by the flagship Gerald Ford off the Israeli coast, indicates that this type of weapons supply and threats of action against Hamas are not necessary. However, they can be very useful in the confrontation with Iran and its “junior partners” in the region.
Israel’s opponents in the Iranian-nurtured “Axis of Resistance” not only do not hide their connections and solidarity but even advertise them deliberately. Abu Udeiba, a member of Hamas’s military leadership, thanked Iran for its support of the movement with “money, weapons, and other equipment” in carrying out the Al-Aqsa Storm. The main sponsors of the Sunni fundamentalist Hamas are Qatar and Erdogan’s Turkey.
Shiite Iran has only recently begun to grant it its patronage, and unlike Hezbollah, it is by no means dominant. Due to the complete isolation of the Gaza Strip from Israel, even at sea, the delivery of weapons to the Gaza Strip is almost exclusively through tunnels from the Egyptian Sinai. They arrive there from all over the world, especially along with grain freighters and from Ukraine.
Why do I think this way? Cairo has not yet succeeded in fully cleansing the Sinai of the Muslim Brotherhood, even near the Gaza Strip border. On the other hand, historically, Hamas developed into a regional branch of the pan-Arab Islamist movement, which still remains its most important “sponsor.”
It is impossible to ignore the fact that in Tehran, there are triumphant declarations, and threats are being made to destroy Israel once and for all. It seems that this side is fully prepared for large-scale hostilities, which only increases the risk of an extremely acute and dangerous regional conflict with significant consequences for global politics. General Mohammad Hossein Baqeri, the Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, indicated that the impressive hybrid military strike by Palestinian resistance forces against the Zionist enemy proves to Israeli leaders that their nightmare is coming true.
Officially, Iran denies its involvement in this particular Hamas operation. Among other reasons, this is because Hamas, in many ways, is not under its control. According to the Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Nasser Kanaani, the Islamic Republic does not interfere in the decision-making of other countries, including Palestine. He explained that the Palestinians had the necessary ability and will to defend their nation and restore their rights without assistance from Tehran. Talk about Iran’s role aims to divert public opinion and justify potential future Israeli actions. This also means for those ignoring the global upheaval: we already have a premonition of the course of events.
So far, the United States has taken a vague position regarding Iran’s role in these events. The White House said it is too early to determine if Iran was “directly” involved in the Hamas attack but added that there is no doubt that Iran has funded, equipped, and armed Hamas. However, not only the media but also a significant part of the American establishment in both parties directly blame Iran for everything and call for the toughest measures against it, especially the leading Republican presidential candidates, Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis. At some point, it may become easier for President Biden to join Israel in its alleged attacks on Iran than to remain on the sidelines.
In the West, there are attempts to portray Russia as a hidden force behind the scenes that pushed Hamas to terrorist operations. As evidence, it’s mentioned that the Turkish Energy Minister was scheduled to arrive in Israel in mid-October to sign an agreement on the transfer of gas from Israeli fields in the eastern Mediterranean through Israeli territory to Europe.
For the Americans who supported this project, it was intended as a blow against Russian deliveries through the Black Sea. Now, in the coming years, this will definitely not be the case. Gazprom will, of course, breathe a sigh of relief, but there is no plausible reason to link the two events. The version with accusations against Moscow was primarily launched in Ukraine. Even in the United States, there is no rush to take up and endorse Kiev’s revelations.
Despite the fact that Israel is currently fully focused on warfare in Gaza, the word “betrayal!” is increasingly heard throughout the country because people cannot understand the failure of all security forces in the Gaza Strip.
The significance of their inaction is seen by many in the fact that the militant Palestinians were deliberately let in to have a pretext for negotiating with them forever. Shocking is what an Egyptian intelligence officer told the Associated Press: I repeatedly warned Israel about a terrorist group based in Gaza planning something big, but they were ignored. Whether it was just the fanatical Minister of National Security Ben-Gvir who provoked the desecration of Muslim shrines in the Al-Aqsa Mosque the day before, about which the entire civilized world remains stubbornly silent, or if Prime Minister Netanyahu was involved, the future will show. Today, the Prime Minister has a reason to rejoice. How long, however, is another matter, a question without a clear answer.
Opposites converge
The Samuel Accords between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which were thwarted by these events and vigorously promoted by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, did not suit the Palestinian authorities or the ruling Israeli coalition. The Palestinians were dissatisfied because the accords were weak in terms of Palestinian rights, and Israel’s right-wing government did not like the fact that they were mentioned at all. In any case, it is unlikely that the accords alone will erase all traces of the operation in Gaza. Therefore, Netanyahu may need a large and protracted war with Iran based on the elementary instinct of self-preservation.
At the same time, it is unlikely that he will start with an attack on Gaza simultaneously. It is more likely that he will proceed in stages. first against Hamas, then against Tehran-backed forces in Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon, and then against Iran.
The latter are unlikely to wait for this scenario but will attempt preemptive strikes, especially through Syria and Lebanon. Although it would be better if none of this happens, as an analyst, I must consider the possibility of such developments. Moreover, the spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Nasser Kanaani, warned the Zionist regime that any act of aggression against the Islamic Republic would provoke a devastating response.
For completeness, one must be aware that Israelis (Jews) do not even have numerical superiority on their own territory. Israel has a population of 9 million, of which 7 million are Jews and 1.8 million are Arabs, who welcomed Hamas as their liberators on October 7th. Another 2.5 million Arab Palestinians live in the Gaza Strip. 2.3 million Arabs (Palestinians) live in the West Bank. The West Bank has not yet spoken out in favor of the redivision of Israel and is much more radical than Hamas. Therefore, it is only a matter of time before they do. Because the general mood among Arabs is unstoppable.
This means that even on their own territory, 7 million Jews are facing 6.6 million Arabs. And it must be taken into account that Egypt alone has 95 million Arabs. The Lebanese Hezbollah is urging the King of Jordan to send up to 300,000 fighters into the battle against Israel through Jordan, and Hezbollah is threatening terrorist attacks if he does not allow it. For readers interested in the Middle East issue, I recommend familiarizing themselves with the predictions of Vladimir Zhirinovsky and the statement of the former US Ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, regarding the current escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Consent is not required.
Who is Dr. Jan Campbell?
Jan Campbell is a German citizen of Czech nationality, an analyst. He was born in 1946. Until November 2014, he headed Campbell Concept UG Bonn and worked as an assistant professor at the Faculty of Business Administration at the University of Economics in Prague. Until the pandemic, he also worked as a visiting scholar at foreign universities, including heading the EU coordination office for the TACIS programme in the early 1990s and serving as an EU advisor to two prime ministers of the Kyrgyz Republic. He has also worked in a number of other countries, including the UK, Italy, Switzerland, Malaysia, the USSR, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Russia, the Czech Republic and the Federal Republic of Germany. In Russia, he received the honorary title of professor at the Ural State Agrarian University. In Slovakia, he won the Golden Biatec Award in 2014 for “Completely new perspectives on past and present events in domestic and foreign media, but especially in his professional practice in a number of international and national public and private organisations.
